I highly recommend everyone to read this. Marks is wise and uses a logical thought process to assess current risks. The market profile and order flow can guide you daily but knowing the overarching position in the cycle can help to maybe sway you when it seems the odds are 50/50, as a bad example
He manages OAK, a publicly traded asset manager paying almost 9% yield, and he’s a conservative value guy so I’d trust my money with him (and that it won’t vanish in a downturn) based on following him for a long time, and his track record.